Resilience of the Moroccan financial market to global shocks: The Role of Monetary Policy and Event Study Analysis (2020–2026)

Résumé

This paper investigates the resilience of the Moroccan financial market to major international shocks over the period 2020-2026. While emerging markets are highly exposed to external disturbances, empirical literature lacks evidence on how the Moroccan market absorbs heterogeneous crises. This study fills this gap by analyzing the MASI index reactions to three distinct events: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the geopolitical tensions between Iran and the United States. Using an event study methodology based on a constant mean return model, we estimate cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) over an eleven-day window (t–5 to t+5). This window is methodologically selected to capture both the anticipation phase and the immediate market adjustment following each shock. Quantified results reveal differentiated market sensitivity depending on the shock nature. The systemic health crisis triggered a persistent negative impact with a CAR of -14.80%. The energy shock linked to the Russia–Ukraine conflict produced an abrupt negative impact with a CAR of -6.73%. Finally, the tensions between Iran and the United States highlight a high level of volatility, resulting in a CAR of -8.91% within the observation window. These findings highlight an evolving financial resilience supported by the stabilization role of Bank Al-Maghrib and underscore the market’s differentiated absorption capacity regarding systemic versus geopolitical shocks.

Classification JEL: G01; G15; C58; E52

Paper type: Empirical Research