Correlation between the economic context and the intensity of cognitive biases in Morocco

Abstract

The traditional economic models is facing limitations based on perfect rationality, behavioral finance highlights the decisive impact of cognitive biases in financial decisions, particularly during periods of economic instability. This article studies how economic fluctuations - crises and speculative bubbles - modulate the intensity of these biases in Morocco, a context marked by high informality, unequal access to financial information, and the growing influence of social networks. Drawing on the theoretical frameworks of Kahneman (2011) and Shiller (2000), as well as empirical data from Moroccan institutions (HCP, 2020; Bank Al-Maghrib, 2020), the study analyzes the predominance of biases such as loss aversion, the availability effect, overconfidence and the herd effect, as a function of economic cycles.

In Morocco the structural and cultural factors play a major amplifying role, exacerbating cognitive distortions in the absence of reliable information and widespread financial education. Economic crises and phases of speculative growth thus only accentuate irrational behavior, compromising long-term economic stability.

This work proposes concrete recommendations for mitigating the impact of cognitive biases, notably by strengthening financial education, improving economic transparency and implementing appropriate regulatory mechanisms. By mobilizing an interdisciplinary approach combining behavioral economics and institutional analysis, the article aims to contribute to greater cognitive and financial resilience in Morocco facing the economic cycles.

Classification JEL : D81, G01, G40, G41, O16

Paper type : Theoretical Research