Towards Energy Sovereignty in Morocco: Petroleum Monitoring, Consumption Autonomy and Geopolitical Shocks Using NARDL, Rolling-Window NARDL and VAR (2) Approaches

Abstract

This article examines Morocco’s petroleum energy sovereignty through an operational consumption-autonomy indicator, defined as the number of days during which available stocks cover average domestic demand. It addresses a gap in a literature that mainly relies on aggregate energy-dependence measures without directly capturing the immediate resilience of supply. The study uses 180 monthly observations from January 2010 to December 2024. The empirical strategy combines a NARDL model, a rolling-window NARDL estimated over 121 moving windows of 60 months, and a stationary VAR(2) with impulse-response functions. These three procedures correspond to the estimations actually performed. The BIC-selected main model indicates a long-run relationship, with a Bounds Test of F = 23.004 and an error-correction coefficient of −0.2614 (p < 0.001), implying that approximately 26.1% of disequilibrium is corrected each month. A Wald test confirms overall asymmetry between the positive and negative Brent components (F close to 58.70; p < 0.001), although their individual coefficients are not significant after HAC/Newey-West correction. The USD/MAD exchange rate and inflation display robust negative associations at the 5% level, whereas the positive coefficient on storage-capacity expansion loses significance under HAC inference. All 121 rolling-window NARDL estimates retain a negative adjustment coefficient, but the absence of window-specific confidence intervals limits statistical interpretation. In the VAR(2), the responses of autonomy to Brent and geopolitical-risk shocks are small, transitory, and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Specification diagnostics therefore require cautious interpretation. The findings primarily support auditable stock traceability, regular publication of indicators, and institutionalized petroleum monitoring. The rehabilitation or strategic conversion of the SAMIR refinery remains a policy option requiring a separate technical, financial, legal, and environmental assessment rather than a direct econometric implication.

JEL Classification: C22, C32, F51, Q41, Q43.

Paper type: Empirical Research.