The Role of Blockchain in Reducing Financial Exclusion and Improving the Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market in Morocco

Abstract

Blockchain technology is widely recognized as a pivotal innovation capable of simultaneously enhancing financial market efficiency and fostering financial inclusion. However, existing literature generally analyzes these relationships through fragmented sectoral or technological approaches, lacking an integrated theoretical framework to explain the joint role of economic, institutional, and social factors. Furthermore, empirical studies focusing on Morocco and, more broadly, the MENA region remains limited. This research aims to address this gap by developing a conceptual model grounded in Schumpeter's theory of innovation, economic efficiency theory, Sen's capability approach, Granovetter's social embeddedness theory, and Stiglitz's analysis of information asymmetries to investigate the relationships among blockchain adoption, foreign exchange (FX) market efficiency, and financial inclusion.

The empirical analysis is based on a simulated monthly dataset ( ) covering the period from January 2015 to December 2025. The data were calibrated using macro-financial indicators from Bank Al-Maghrib, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), and the Global Findex database to replicate realistic macro-financial dynamics within the Moroccan context. Hypotheses were tested using multiple regressions, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), and machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, XGBoost, and Long Short-Term Memory – LSTM).

The results demonstrate that blockchain adoption exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on FX market efficiency ( , ), which in turn positively influences financial inclusion ( , ). The models account for between 68% and 81% of the variance in the dependent variables ( ). Bootstrap analyses further confirm a partial mediation effect of FX market efficiency, as well as significant moderating effects of institutional trust, digital literacy, and regulatory readiness.

This research contributes to the literature by delivering an integrated theoretical framework that elucidates the mechanisms linking blockchain, FX market efficiency, and financial inclusion in an emerging economy. It also highlights the critical importance of strengthening the regulatory framework, enhancing digital skills, and fostering public policy coordination to support the development of blockchain technologies within the Moroccan context.

JEL Classification: F31, G15, E42, O33.

Paper Type: Empirical research article.