Impact of Drought and Floods on Agricultural Household Poverty in Burkina Faso

Résumé

The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of extreme weather events specifically droughts and floods on the monetary and food poverty of agricultural households in Burkina Faso. To do so, we use data from the Permanent Agricultural Survey (EPA) along with climate data provided by the Burkina Faso National Meteorological Directorate. The climate variables representing drought and flood are constructed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a recognized indicator for capturing hydrometeorological anomalies.

Since the dependent variable (poverty) is binary, we apply a logit model to estimate the likelihood of poverty occurrence based on climate shocks and the socioeconomic characteristics of households.

The empirical results show that both types of extreme events significantly increase the risk of poverty among agricultural households, with drought having a more pronounced effect. Specifically, experiencing a drought increases the likelihood of poverty by more than three times, compared to a 1.5-fold increase in the case of floods. This highlights the severe vulnerability of farming households to prolonged water deficits, which directly affect agricultural yields and food security.

Furthermore, the analysis reveals that certain household characteristics exacerbate vulnerability to poverty. Households with more than 14 members face a significantly higher probability of falling into both monetary and food poverty. In contrast, income diversification reduces poverty risk, as it strengthens the economic resilience of farming households in the face of climate shocks.

Finally, our results underscore a key gender dimension: households headed by women are less likely to experience monetary poverty compared to those headed by men. This may be due to differences in financial management strategies or a more cautious approach to income diversification.

In sum, this study highlights the urgent need for public policies that integrate both climatic and social dimensions to effectively combat rural poverty in the context of increasing climate variability.

JEL Classification : Q18; Q54 ; O12 ; O13

Type du papier : Recherche empirique